The Climate Change Committee (CCC) published its advice on the seventh carbon budget in February 2025. Its pathway predicts a gradual increase in household penetration of non-heat pump electric heating systems, including flexible thermal energy stores, from the current 7 per cent to 16 per cent by 20401.
The same pathway sets out growth in flexibility from thermal energy stores, reaching 15.7GW by 20401. The figures appear in a BEAMA paper published in August 2025, which cites the CCC advice and argues that the opportunity from flexible thermal storage is being underestimated and underused across government policy and incentives1.
BEAMA states that the Smart and Secure Electricity System (SSES) framework has mandated heat pumps and storage heaters as energy smart appliances but not any other thermal energy storage system1:
"SSES has mandated heat pumps and storage heaters as energy smart appliances but not any other thermal energy storage system"
The paper also cites manufacturer estimates that alternative clean heat solutions could offer almost 10GW of flexibility on the grid by 2030 and a further 5GW by 2040, and proposes shifting from 4GW of high heat retention storage in 2025 to 9.3GW by 20301. It states that around 20 per cent of homes are not suitable for heat pumps1. BEAMA's chief executive, Yselkla Farmer, writes that any heating-specific electricity tariff must be uniformly applied to all low carbon heating technologies, not just heat pump driven solutions1.
The CCC's own published advice on the seventh carbon budget has not been reviewed here beyond BEAMA's citation of it, and the CCC's separate figures for these categories have not been reported in the material available.
Why it matters for households
The CCC pathway implies that most homes electrifying heat over the next fifteen years will still do so through a heat pump, but a growing minority will use other electric heating, including thermal stores. For a household, the distinction matters because the technology determines which grants, tariffs and flexibility payments are open to it. BEAMA's central complaint is that only heat pumps and storage heaters are recognised as energy smart appliances under SSES, so other thermal storage systems cannot access the same flexibility arrangements1. Homes that cannot accommodate a heat pump, which BEAMA puts at around 20 per cent, sit outside the main incentive route1. The scale of flexible thermal storage in the pathway, 15.7GW by 2040, indicates the grid is expected to lean on household heat storage rather than generation alone, which affects how heat pumps and household energy independence are treated in carbon budgets and net zero targets.
What happens next
BEAMA's recommendations are addressed to government and are not dated commitments. The paper calls for a fiscal and regulatory framework covering all low carbon electric heating, Building Regulations requiring a minimum level of hot water storage in new homes, and targets for flexible thermal storage capacity1. No government response to the BEAMA paper has been reported.