The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) warned in November 2024 that the UK car industry was likely to fall short of the first year of the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate, with electric vehicles (EVs) making up 18.7% of sales against a 22% requirement1.
The SMMT said the shortfall could create a £1.8bn bill for compliance1. Under the regulation-policy framework, manufacturers that miss their target can avoid paying by trading credits with other firms or borrowing allowances from future years1.
The mandate set a rising share of new car sales that must be zero emission, starting at 22% in 2024 and increasing gradually to 80% by 20301.
"The industry looks likely to fall short of the 22% EV market share demanded, potentially creating a £1.8bn bill for compliance."
Official figures published in early 2026 showed the car market in fact over-complied in 2024, meeting the equivalent of a 24.5% target once flexibilities such as the sale of lower-emission hybrids and plug-in hybrids were counted, with a surplus of 2.5% banked for future years1. All UK carmakers avoided fines1. Final EV sales for 2024 came in at 19.8%, more than a percentage point above the SMMT's November estimate1.
The SMMT has continued to argue that demand is behind the targets. In January 2026 it said the gap between EV demand and the mandate's ambition was increasing rather than diminishing, and in May 2026 it cited a persistent gap of around six percentage points against the 33% target for 2026 and 38% for 2027, with EV sales expected to reach 27% this year and 33% in 20271. The thinktank New Automotive estimates the real 2026 target can be met with EV sales of around 25% once flexibilities are counted1.
| Year | Headline car ZEV target | SMMT expected EV share |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22% | 18.7% (November 2024 estimate) |
| 2026 | 33% | 27% |
| 2027 | 38% | 33% |
Why it matters for households
The mandate shapes which new cars reach the UK market and at what price, so the argument over whether it is being met bears on the choice available to households considering a switch away from petrol or diesel. Carbon Brief reports that new EVs became cheaper to buy than petrol cars on average for the first time, according to the car sales platform Autotrader in April, and that EVs were already significantly cheaper to own1. The flexibilities in the scheme mean the headline percentages are not the whole picture of what manufacturers must deliver, and the SMMT's figures and the government's compliance figures measure different things1.
What happens next
The government has pledged to review the ZEV mandate, with results due in early 20271. The SMMT has called for an urgent review, which its chief executive Mike Hawes said should be used to align policy with market realities1. The SMMT has said no one will know whether the industry complied with the 2025 target until official figures are published in 20271.