The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) called on 27 November 2024 for urgent government intervention to safeguard the UK automotive sector and what it describes as Britain's zero emission vehicle transition. The trade body said weak demand for electric vehicles (EVs), combined with the need to meet rising sales quotas under the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate, will cost the industry some £6 billion in 2024, with higher costs expected next year1.
The SMMT's analysis compares current registrations with the assumptions made when the mandate was designed. It says the industry anticipated 457,000 electric cars would be registered in 2024, a 23.3% share of all new car registrations, but the latest outlook shows 94,000 fewer, totalling 363,000 and an 18.7% market share. For vans, the outlook has halved to 20,000 units, a 5.7% share against a 2024 target of 10%1.
| Measure | Expected when mandate announced | Latest 2024 outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Electric cars registered | 457,000 | 363,000 |
| Electric car market share | 23.3% | 18.7% |
| Electric vans registered | 40,000 | 20,000 |
| Electric van market share | 10% target | 5.7% |
The SMMT says manufacturers have subsidised sales through an estimated £4 billion in discounts, and that the industry looks likely to fall short of the 22% EV market share demanded. It estimates a £1.8 billion compliance bill for car manufacturers missing their targets, assuming each pays a compliance fee of £15,000 per vehicle, before van costs are added1. It also reports a 30% boost in EV model choice since last year, with more than 125 zero emission car models and over 30 van models available1.
"We need an urgent review of the automotive market and the regulation intended to drive it. Not because we want to water down any commitments, but because delivery matters more than notional targets. The industry is hurting; profitability and viability are in jeopardy and jobs are on the line. When the world changes, so must we. Workable regulation, backed with incentives, will set us up for success and green growth over the next decade."
Why it matters for households
The mandate sets a rising share of each manufacturer's sales that must be zero emission, and the SMMT's figures suggest the market has not moved as fast as the regulation assumed. For a household considering an electric car or van, the practical picture in these numbers is one of heavy discounting by manufacturers trying to hit quotas, alongside the SMMT's account of steep interest rates, high raw material and energy prices, and what it calls a lack of confidence in perceived chargepoint provision1. The trade body frames the choice available to buyers as broad, with more than 125 zero emission car models and over 30 van models on offer1. It argues that a more competitive market would put more EVs on the road faster, which it calls a more important marker for decarbonisation than market share1. Nothing in the SMMT's statement sets out changes to grants, charging costs or taxes for households, and no consumer-facing measures have been reported.
What happens next
The SMMT has asked for a review of the automotive market and the regulation driving it, and for action to stimulate demand and adjust the regulation to reflect market realities1. It says the sector could deliver £50 billion in growth over the next decade if safeguarded1. No government response or timetable for a review is reported in the SMMT's statement. Further detail on the rules and their phase-in dates sits in the regulation and policy coverage.