Ed Miliband made a pre-election promise not to press ahead with a 2035 ban on boiler sales, according to an analysis published by the research foundation Nesta on 21 January 20251. The promise was made before he was appointed Energy Secretary1. The 2035 date had been set out by then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the Heat and Buildings Strategy in 2021, and would have meant no household could install a gas boiler after that year1.
The status of the date is now uncertain. The previous government watered it down considerably, and it is not clear whether a phase out will ever be extended to existing homes1. The Future Homes Standard, which will prevent fossil fuel boilers being installed in new homes, should come into force in the next few years, but applies only to new build1. The UK government is still developing its Warm Homes Plan, which should include a policy announcement on phase out dates1.
The Climate Change Committee recommended the 2035 date in its advice on adopting the net zero 2050 target1. The reasoning was that if the average boiler has a life span of 15 years, preventing the installation of new boilers after 2035 should mean most are replaced in time to hit net zero by 20501. Nesta states there was never a plan to remove functioning gas boilers, only to replace them with a low carbon alternative when they reached the end of their lives1.
Nesta sets out three alternatives to a national date1:
| Option | Mechanism | Figures given |
|---|---|---|
| Clean Heat Market Mechanism | Boiler manufacturers must install a set number of heat pumps per 100 boilers | 6 heat pumps per 100 boilers this year, roughly 90,000 heat pumps; scaling to 100 or more per 100 boilers by 2030 |
| Consumer incentives | Subsidies and levy reform to make heat pumps cheaper than boilers over their lifetime | Subsidies at the current rate of £7,500; cost to government could exceed £10 billion per year if 1.5 million heat pumps a year from the mid-2030s each attracted that level |
| Local gas grid switch off | Local switch off dates combined with targeted financial support | No national date set |
On the Clean Heat Market Mechanism, Nesta warns that above 100 heat pumps per 100 boilers the incentive may lose effect, with manufacturers leaving the market rather than installing heat pumps1. On the gas network, it notes that if most homes have replaced their gas boilers by the early 2040s, households remaining on gas may face a steep increase in bills, or keeping the grid operating may become unaffordable1. Testing by the Behavioural Insights Team found 71% of people either supported or did not oppose the phase out date1.
"On balance, looking at these available options we think there is a strong case for recommitting to the 2035 phase out date for the installation of new fossil fuel boilers - in our opinion the most straightforward policy option."
Why it matters for households
A 2035 ban would not have required anyone to remove a working boiler. It would have applied at the point of replacement, so a household installing a new heating system after that year would have had to choose a low carbon option1. With the date in doubt, the practical question for a household replacing a boiler is what rules will apply to existing homes, and that has not been settled1. The Future Homes Standard covers new homes only1. The Clean Heat Market Mechanism places obligations on manufacturers rather than households, though it is intended to scale up heat pump supply and bring prices down1. Subsidy levels and the relative cost of electricity and gas affect the running cost comparison between a heat pump and a boiler, and Nesta notes that levy reform to make electricity cheaper relative to gas is an essential step whatever policy is pursued1. For a home's energy independence, the choice of heating system determines what fuel it depends on: gas connects a household to the gas grid and its future costs, while a heat pump runs on electricity. Nesta's third option raises the prospect that some areas lose their gas network before others, which would affect households differently depending on where they live1.
What happens next
The UK government is still developing its Warm Homes Plan, which should include a policy announcement on phase out dates1. The Future Homes Standard should come into force in the next few years1. The Clean Heat Market Mechanism is set at 6 heat pumps per hundred boilers this year, roughly 90,000 heat pumps in total, and then scaled up from there1. No date has been reported for the Warm Homes Plan or for a decision on the 2035 date.