Cornwall Insight projections for the Default Tariff Cap show a fall of 8 per cent in July to £1,560 for Q3 2024, followed by rises to £1,631 in Q4 2024 and £1,634 in Q1 2025, according to figures published by EDF on 3 April 20241. The same projections were reported by the Resolution Foundation on 23 February 2024, which at that time gave Cornwall Insight forecasts of £1,463 for Q3 and £1,521 for Q42. The two sets of figures disagree: the Q3 number has moved from £1,463 to £1,560 and the Q4 number from £1,521 to £1,631 between the two publications.
EDF used the updated projections to promote a fixed tariff being withdrawn from sale. Its Essentials 1Yr Apr25 tariff is priced at £1,581 for a one-year fix, which EDF said is £109 below the current price cap, and the company stated that based on current projections customers would save an average of £50 over the year1. The tariff requires customers to have or agree to have a smart meter installed, and EDF said customers would not be charged exit fees if it launches a cheaper fixed deal1. EDF said the deal was available until 4pm on Thursday 4 April1.
"Wholesale energy prices have been falling for several months now, bringing welcome relief to consumers and means we have been able to offer our best fixed price tariff since 2021. However, given the recent rises in energy prices, if consumers want to secure our most affordable energy tariff they need to act now."
The Resolution Foundation's February analysis put the wider picture in context. It calculated that household energy bills were on track to fall by 24 per cent, or £545, in real terms in 2024 compared with 2023, the second biggest percentage fall since the cap was introduced in 20192. It also found that typical annual bills in 2024 would still be 28 per cent, or £360, higher in real terms than pre-crisis levels in 20212. On the distribution of the fall, it said richer households would see the biggest annual cash savings at £620, while poorer households would see the biggest proportional fall, at 4.8 per cent of household income2.
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Q3 2024 cap (Cornwall Insight, via EDF) | £1,560 |
| Q4 2024 cap (Cornwall Insight, via EDF) | £1,631 |
| Q1 2025 cap (Cornwall Insight, via EDF) | £1,634 |
| Q3 2024 cap (Cornwall Insight, via Resolution Foundation) | £1,463 |
| Q4 2024 cap (Cornwall Insight, via Resolution Foundation) | £1,521 |
| EDF Essentials 1Yr Apr25 fix | £1,581 |
Why it matters for households
The cap sets the maximum a supplier can charge for each unit of gas and electricity on a standard variable tariff, so its path determines what most households pay. A forecast rise in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 means the winter months, when consumption is highest, would carry the higher rates. The Resolution Foundation noted that just 16 per cent of annual gas consumption takes place between April and June, compared with 45 per cent between January and March, so a summer fall in the cap does less for annual bills than the winter level does2.
For a home's energy independence, the projections matter in two ways. First, they set the baseline against which any fixed deal is judged: a fix priced below the projected cap locks in a known cost, while a standard variable tariff leaves the household exposed to whatever the cap does next. Second, the Resolution Foundation's finding on insulation shows how much the building itself, rather than the tariff, drives the bill. It calculated that a typical family in an EPC E-rated property faces bills of £1,975 in 2024, against £1,540 in an EPC C-rated property2. Reducing demand is the part of the bill a household controls directly; the cap is not.
What happens next
The Q3 2024 cap level is due to be announced by Ofgem, with the change taking effect in July. The Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 figures are Cornwall Insight projections and have not been confirmed. EDF's fixed tariff was withdrawn from sale at 4pm on Thursday 4 April 20241.