The National Audit Office's report in March 2024 set out the difficulties facing the decarbonisation of home heating, including delays and cancellations in hydrogen heating trials and lower than expected uptake in the Boiler Upgrade Scheme1. The findings were recorded in written evidence from Hydrogen UK, the trade association representing organisations across the hydrogen value chain, submitted to the Public Accounts Committee1.
Hydrogen UK's submission states that the government's Heat and Buildings Strategy, published in October 2021, set out a plan to end the installation of new fossil fuel boilers by 2035 and to increase market capacity for heat pump installations1. On heat pumps, the submission cites Climate Change Committee figures showing the UK is not on track to reach its ambition of 600,000 annual installations by 2028, with approximately 40,000 installed in 2023, a 20 per cent increase on 20221.
The association disputes the National Infrastructure Commission's advice in the Second National Infrastructure Assessment, which concluded there is no public policy case for hydrogen heating. Hydrogen UK states that the assessment excluded the results of scenarios 1 and 5 from the Aurora Energy Research study commissioned for it, and that the two scenarios including hydrogen heating carry higher electricity system costs "driven by an earlier retirement of fossil fuel heating technologies, which causes power demand to rise sooner in the forecast"1. The submission argues the financial case against those scenarios rests on earlier retirement of fossil fuel heating rather than the use of hydrogen1.
On the gas grid, the submission cites an Arup report commissioned by the National Infrastructure Commission and Ofgem, which estimated decommissioning costs for what cannot be repurposed at approximately £17 billion in the Balanced Hydrogen scenario and £25.2 billion in the Low Hydrogen scenario1. Hydrogen UK also states that hydrogen could bring system cost savings of up to £6.2 billion compared with pure electrification, and cites National Infrastructure Commission projections of around 8 TWh of hydrogen storage by 2035, with Royal Society estimates of 60 to 100 TWh by mid-century1.
"We also support the NAO's recommendation from the report that the government should provide clearer guidance on the role of hydrogen in domestic heating by 2026 to facilitate industry planning and investment."
Why it matters for households
The report concerns the two main routes proposed for moving homes off fossil fuel heating: electrification through heat pumps, supported by the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, and hydrogen, tested through the hydrogen home heating trials. Lower than expected uptake of the Boiler Upgrade Scheme suggests grant funding has not translated into installations at the pace intended, while cancelled or delayed trials reduce the evidence available on hydrogen before decisions due in 20261. For a household, the practical effect is uncertainty about which heating systems will be supported, and when, which bears on decisions about replacing a boiler and on the value of any grant. The submission also notes that the UK gas network transports energy to heat almost 85 per cent of UK homes, and that decommissioning costs for parts that cannot be repurposed are estimated at £17 billion to £25.2 billion depending on the scenario1. Those costs would ultimately fall on energy billpayers, though the submission does not set out how they would be recovered.
What happens next
The government is due to make decisions in 2026 on the role of hydrogen in home heating, and Hydrogen UK states that some aspects of the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero's plans to test feasibility are behind schedule or cancelled, meaning less evidence will be available for those decisions1. The submission calls for specific criteria and timelines in the lead-up to the 2026 decision, and for information sharing with trials in other countries, including the Netherlands and Japan, alongside SGN's H100 Fife project1.
Sources1 cited
- [](https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/129600/pdf/), committees.parliament.uk