The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) published an analysis on 28 March 2024 concluding that Government policy is pushing the UK backwards on energy security, one year after the publication of the Powering Up Britain strategy in March 20231. The ECIU states that the strategy set out "plans setting out how the government will enhance our country's energy security", but that subsequent decisions have prolonged the UK's dependence on oil and gas1.
The analysis points to a speech by the Prime Minister in September 2023 announcing policy changes1. According to the ECIU, the scrapping of regulations to improve the energy efficiency of private rental homes would have led to 2.4 million households using less imported gas for heating, and the scrapping of plans to replace oil boilers would have led to 1 million households using no imported oil for heating1. A change to the phase-out date for internal combustion engine vehicles contributed to a projected fall in sales of 2.8 million electric vehicles, the ECIU says1.
The ECIU also cites the disbanding of the energy efficiency taskforce, which it says was advising on cutting energy demand by 15%, and a recent delay to the Clean Heat Market Mechanism1. It states that administrative misjudgements have slowed the deployment of offshore wind farms, and that the Government introduced a Bill to require annual licensing that might lead to more oil and gas production, and recently prioritised gas power plants in the Capacity Market1.
"A year on from the 'Powering Up Britain' strategy, Government policy is pushing the UK backwards on energy security."
The ECIU's figures set the electricity that could be generated from new gas exploration licences against the generation lost through delayed offshore wind. It states that the reduction in UK-based electricity generation due to delayed offshore wind farms could be 22 times larger than the electricity that could be generated as a result of new licences for gas exploration1. It projects a cumulative net loss of about 150TWh of electricity production based on UK offshore wind by 2030, and says replacing this lost wind generation with gas power would drive up gas imports by 300TWh over six years1. Separately, it states that by delaying the ICE phase-out, UK drivers could use a cumulative total of 55TWh more energy by 2030, and 65TWh more imported energy1.
| Measure cited by the ECIU | Stated consequence |
|---|---|
| Scrapping energy efficiency regulations for private rental homes | 2.4 million households would have used less imported gas for heating1 |
| Scrapping plans to replace oil boilers | 1 million households would have used no imported oil for heating1 |
| Change to the ICE phase-out | Projected fall in sales of 2.8 million EVs1 |
| Delayed offshore wind | Cumulative net loss of about 150TWh of electricity production by 20301 |
| Replacing lost wind with gas power | Gas imports up by 300TWh over six years1 |
| Delayed ICE phase-out | 55TWh more energy used by drivers by 2030, and 65TWh more imported energy1 |
Why it matters for households
The ECIU's figures describe a gap between the electricity the UK generates at home and the energy it buys in. Delayed offshore wind is presented as a loss of homegrown electricity, while the shortfall is described as having to be made up partly, and maybe mostly, by generation using imported fuels1. For a household, that connects the energy security of the grid to the price and availability of gas and oil brought in from elsewhere.
The measures the ECIU lists are ones that act on the demand side of a home: insulation in rented properties, the fuel used for heating, and the fuel used for driving. Each is described in terms of imported energy avoided, so the analysis frames household energy independence as a matter of how much gas and oil a home does not need to buy in, rather than only how much power is generated nationally. The ECIU does not put a figure on bill impacts in this analysis, and no household-level cost estimates for these specific changes have been reported in it1.
What happens next
The ECIU's report is dated 28 March 2024 and was last updated on 1 April 20241. It refers to a delay to the Clean Heat Market Mechanism and to a Bill requiring annual licensing, but does not give dates for either1. No further timetable for the policies it discusses is set out in the analysis1.