The End Fuel Poverty Coalition has estimated that 4,950 excess winter deaths in the UK were caused by living in cold homes during winter 2022/23, following publication of new official data1. The figure is higher than the Coalition's previous estimate of 4,706 excess winter deaths caused by cold homes1.
The estimate combines Office for National Statistics data for England and Wales, published in table 10 and updated on 17 January 2024, with data from National Records of Scotland and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, then applies Institute of Health Equity methodology1. The Coalition said historic records indicate that when the mean winter temperature in the UK drops below four degrees centigrade, the level of excess winter deaths rises sharply, and that the average temperature last winter was 4.3 degrees1.
The Coalition's records set out its estimates of excess winter deaths caused by cold homes alongside mean winter temperatures1:
| Winter | Excess winter deaths caused by cold homes | Mean winter temperature (C) |
|---|---|---|
| 2010/2011 | 6,232 | 2.4 |
| 2011/2012 | 5,608 | 4.5 |
| 2012/2013 | 7,321 | 3.3 |
| 2013/2014 | 4,206 | 5.2 |
| 2014/2015 | 10,475 | 3.9 |
| 2015/2016 | 6,035 | 5.5 |
| 2016/2017 | 8,211 | 5 |
| 2017/2018 | 11,997 | 3.6 |
| 2018/2019 | 5,665 | 5.2 |
| 2019/2020 | 2,439 | 5.3 |
| 2020/2021 | 14,502 | 3.5 |
| 2021/2022 | 3,229 | 5.2 |
| 2022/2023 | 4,950 | 4.3 |
The Coalition said the Government continues to rely on Warm Homes Discounts, Cold Weather Payments and Winter Fuel Payments as measures of support to households, which it described as limited in eligibility and impact, and that this winter the Government refused demands for an Emergency Energy Tariff and a help to repay scheme for those in energy debt1. A spokesperson for the Coalition said:
"Figures from the Warm This Winter campaign show that 8.3m adults are living in cold damp homes this winter and, as temperatures drop, these conditions go from being uncomfortable to downright dangerous."
The Coalition also stated that in February 2024 the ONS launched a consultation on the methodology associated with this calculation and set out new figures for excess deaths in a particular period, rather than excess winter mortality levels as set out in the figures above, and that the old data is not technically incorrect but the metrics used may be less accurate than the new measures1.
Why it matters for households
The estimate concerns deaths attributed to cold homes rather than energy prices directly, and it rests on a modelled calculation rather than a count of individual cases. The Coalition's own note records that the ONS has consulted on the methodology and has published alternative measures, so the 4,950 figure should be read as one estimate among others1. For a household, the practical link between a cold home and health is the temperature the home reaches and how long it stays there, which depends on the building's fabric, its heating system and what the occupants can afford to run. The Coalition's records show its estimates varying widely between winters, from 2,439 in 2019/2020 to 14,502 in 2020/2021, alongside mean winter temperatures1. The Coalition said 8.3m adults were living in cold damp homes this winter, citing the Warm This Winter campaign1. The Coalition's statement does not report figures for how many homes have been insulated, or the effect of any specific measure on death rates.
What happens next
The Coalition reports that the ONS launched a consultation on the methodology in February 2024 and set out new figures for excess deaths in a particular period1. No outcome of that consultation is reported. The Coalition states that the old data is not technically incorrect, but that the metrics used for calculating the figure may be less accurate than the new measures1.
Sources1 cited
- 4,950 excess winter deaths caused by cold homes last winter, endfuelpoverty.org.uk