Petroineos announced in November 2023 that it would close the Grangemouth oil refinery, and the company completed the closure in 2025, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has reported1. The closure is recorded in the Committee's progress report on reducing emissions in Scotland, published on 25 February 20261.
The report sets the refinery's shutdown alongside the earlier phase-out of coal generation in Scotland. The last remaining coal-fired power station in Scotland, Longannet, closed in 20161. The Committee states that the primary driver of Scotland's emissions reductions so far has been electricity supply, with a significant ramp-up of wind and solar generation enabling the coal phase-out and a steady decline in gas generation, which in 2023 contributed only 7% of the electricity generated in Scotland; the remaining 93% was low-carbon generation, primarily from wind power1.
Scotland's territorial greenhouse gas emissions were 39.6 MtCO2e in 2023, 51.3% lower than in 1990, and fell 2.6% between 2021 and 20231. The Committee attributes the reductions over those two years largely to the residential and public buildings and energy supply sectors, and says that for buildings around half of the overall reduction was due to milder-than-average winter months in 2022 and 2023 and a likely behavioural response to record-high gas prices, rather than sustained changes in how buildings in Scotland are heated1.
The Committee's assessment of the Scottish Government's draft Climate Change Plan, published in November 2025, covers the first three carbon budgets from 2026 to 20401. It finds that 91% of the emissions reduction required to meet the First Carbon Budget (2026 to 2030) is covered by credible plans or plans which carry only some risk, reducing over time to 64% for the Second Carbon Budget and 58% for the Third Carbon Budget1. On low-carbon heat, the Committee says the draft plan lacks sufficient plans for buildings, with very little emissions reduction projected over the next ten years, compensated for by a rapid acceleration in the late 2030s1.
"In November 2023, the owner, Petroineos, announced that it would close the refinery, and the company completed the closure in 2025"
The carbon budgets are set so that average annual emissions will be 57% lower than 1990 levels for the First Carbon Budget (2026 to 2030), 69% lower for the Second (2031 to 2035), 80% lower for the Third (2036 to 2040) and 94% lower for the Fourth (2041 to 2045)1.
| Carbon budget | Period | Average annual emissions against 1990 levels | Implied reduction from 2023 levels |
|---|---|---|---|
| First | 2026 to 2030 | 57% lower | 12% |
| Second | 2031 to 2035 | 69% lower | 36% |
| Third | 2036 to 2040 | 80% lower | 59% |
| Fourth | 2041 to 2045 | 94% lower | 88% |
Source: Climate Change Committee1
Why it matters for households
The refinery closure removes a large industrial emitter from Scotland's emissions account, but the Committee's figures show that household energy use, not heavy industry, now carries much of the remaining reduction. Emissions from buildings fell between 2021 and 2023, yet the Committee says around half of that fall came from milder winters and a likely behavioural response to record-high gas prices rather than sustained changes in how buildings are heated, and that emissions from buildings are likely to increase in colder winters1. For a household, that means the direction of travel on energy supply in Scotland and the fuels used for heating is the part of the national picture most likely to touch running costs and the resilience of a home's supply. The Committee also notes that emissions from imports from outside the UK, which are not counted in the Act's targets, have been relatively steady since 2009 despite territorial emissions falling, so the decline recorded in Scotland is not being offset by increased emissions elsewhere1.
What happens next
The Scottish Government published its draft Climate Change Plan for the first three carbon budgets (2026 to 2040) in November 20251. The Committee says the final plan's framework should include indicative annual sectoral emissions and indicator pathways so that progress can be monitored, warning that the lag in reported emissions data makes it difficult to monitor progress until a given carbon budget is almost over1. The Committee also records that in April 2025 the Convenor of the Scottish Parliament's Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee wrote to the Acting Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero and Energy to summarise input on what would make a good Climate Change Plan1. No date for publication of the final plan is given in the report1.