The Retail Energy Code Company (RECCo) has published a Theft Estimation Methodology report, produced with the technology and data science company Capgemini, estimating the scale of gas and electricity theft in Great Britain1.
The methodology estimates theft of up to 1069 GWh of gas and 2837 GWh of electricity per year. At prices set by Ofgem under the Default Tariff Cap at the time, RECCo says that would equate to a value of up to £1.4 billion per year, though it notes the figure will vary as wholesale prices change1. RECCo also states that energy theft adds up to £50 to every consumer's energy bills each year1.
RECCo commissioned Capgemini in 2021 to produce the methodology, drawing on available data sources including confirmed cases of energy theft1. The company says the last thorough assessment of the scale of energy theft in Great Britain was undertaken by Ofgem around ten years earlier, and that this review led Ofgem to strengthen gas and electricity suppliers' licence obligations to require the prevention, detection and investigation of theft. No reliable estimate of the scale of the problem had been produced since1.
"At current prices, as determined by Ofgem under the Default Tariff Cap, that would equate to a value of up to £1.4 billion per year, though that figure will vary as wholesale prices change."
RECCo says it will use the insights from the report to inform its work with the energy industry to reduce energy theft, including the funding service operated by the charity Crimestoppers. It also funds the Stay Energy Safe campaign, which raises awareness of the danger of tampering with gas and electricity equipment1. The report states that theft usually involves tampering with pipes, wires or meters and can cause electrocution, fire or explosions1.
| Measure | Estimated annual figure |
|---|---|
| Gas theft | Up to 1069 GWh |
| Electricity theft | Up to 2837 GWh |
| Value at Default Tariff Cap prices | Up to £1.4 billion |
| Cost added to each consumer's bills | Up to £50 |
Why it matters for households
The cost of theft is described by RECCo as falling on gas and electricity consumers, at up to £50 per consumer per year1. That figure sits within the Ofgem price cap framework, which sets the default tariff rates used to value the stolen energy. Because the estimate is tied to wholesale prices, the £1.4 billion total is not fixed and will move as those prices change1.
For a household, the practical effect is that the cost of unmetered or tampered supply is recovered across the wider customer base rather than from the property where the theft occurred. The report does not set out how that recovery is apportioned between gas and electricity customers, and no breakdown by nation, region or supplier has been reported1.
The report also links theft to safety risks in the home, including electrocution, fire and explosions from tampered pipes, wires or meters1. Reporting routes exist through Crimestoppers on 0800 023 2777, which RECCo says is anonymous, and through the energy complaints and redress system where a household has a dispute with its supplier. Further detail on the regulatory background sits in the regulation and policy section.
What happens next
RECCo says the report will inform its future work on theft reduction, as set out in its Forward Work Plan for 2023-26, published the week before the report1. No further dates for updated theft estimates have been reported.