The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) published analysis on 14 November 2022 finding that bringing many of the UK's homes up to a basic level of insulation this decade could save up to 384TWh of gas over the period 2030 to 2035, against 118TWh that could be produced by new "already approved" North Sea fields over the same period1. The ECIU describes 384TWh as equivalent to a fifth (20%) of current total annual household gas demand, or 11% of gas imports1.
The gas saving depends on how domestic demand behaves after the covid pandemic. The ECIU puts the figure at 294TWh if annual domestic gas demand returns to the 2019-2021 average, and 384TWh if it stays at 2021 levels1. Insulating all homes to EPC band C in line with the government's 2035 target, on the timeline recommended in the Climate Change Committee's Balanced Pathway to the sixth carbon budget, could cut domestic gas demand by between 49TWh/yr and 64TWh/yr1. On the North Sea side, the ECIU says production from the 11 already approved fields would start in the 2020s, peak in 2028 at 57TWh/yr and then decline1.
The analysis also sets out bill savings for homes reaching EPC band C, modelled across three gas price scenarios1:
| Scenario | Average gas unit price to 2030 | Total saving, EPC D to C, by end 2029 | Total saving, EPC F to C, by end 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|
| High gas prices | 12.8p/kWh | £2,469 | £5,697 |
| Medium gas prices | 9.9p/kWh | £1,944 | £4,486 |
| Low gas prices | 8.4p/kWh | £1,715 | £3,958 |
The ECIU states that reaching the government's EPC C target could lower the total paid for gas in the average home, currently EPC band D, by £1,944 by the start of 2030 in a central scenario, rising to £2,469 if gas prices stay high for the rest of the decade1. For homes rated band F, it puts total savings at £4,486 in a central scenario and £5,697 if prices stay high1.
On delivery, the ECIU says just 150,000 homes are expected to benefit from energy efficiency installations in 2022, and that at that rate only 1.2 million homes will have had insulation installed by the end of 2030, far below what is needed for the target of bringing the vast majority of homes to EPC C by 20351. It also states that delivery under the government's Energy Company Obligation scheme has stalled after internal government delays, with 18,750 low income households potentially missing out on measures that could save them £300 each1.
"Getting many of the UK's homes up to a basic level of insulation this decade could save up to 384TWh (terawatt hours) of gas over the period 2030 to 2035"
Why it matters for households
The comparison is between gas that would otherwise be burned in UK homes and gas that would otherwise be produced from UK fields. Insulation reduces demand at the point of use, so the saving holds whether the gas comes from the North Sea or from imports, and it persists after the fields that peak in 2028 begin to decline1. For an individual home, the practical effect is a smaller volume of gas bought each year, which is what the bill figures above reflect. The ECIU's numbers are modelled on homes moving from EPC band D or F to band C, so the size of any saving depends on the starting condition of the property and on where gas prices go1. The analysis notes that energy efficiency, including insulation, contributed 25% of economic growth between 1971 and 2013, and that polling shows 82% support government financial help for making homes more energy efficient1. How much a given home saves, and what any insulation and glazing work costs, is not set out in the analysis; the ECIU gives no payback figures. Our guide to how much insulation saves on energy bills covers the household-level picture, and the relationship between insulation and energy independence is set out separately.
What happens next
The ECIU frames the 2030 to 2035 period as the window in which the gas savings would accrue, with the North Sea fields starting production in the 2020s and peaking in 20281. The government's stated target is to bring the vast majority of homes up to EPC C by 20351. No further dated commitments are given in the analysis.