Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN) Distribution announced the Vulnerability Future Energy Scenarios (VFES) project, which it says will embed vulnerability features into network planning and help deliver a just transition to net zero1. The announcement was published on 11 October 20221.
The project is supported by Network Innovation Allowance funding of £144,000 and will report in early 20231. SSEN said the work will build on its annual Distribution Future Energy Scenarios, which forecast future energy supply and demand, but will instead focus on customers and communities, using foresighting, machine learning and expert validation to test whether a reliable forecast of vulnerability trends can be developed1. The stated aim is better-informed operational practices and investment planning that can take vulnerable communities into account1.
SSEN said it has more than 770,000 customers on its Priority Services Register (PSR), and that the register is likely to nearly double over the course of the 2020s, reflecting vulnerabilities expected to increase after the COVID-19 pandemic and amid the growing cost of living crisis1. The company said it is seeing significant uptake of low carbon technologies on its network, typically solar panels, electric vehicles and heat pumps, and that the transition carries a risk for customers who may be unwilling or unable to make the switch1. SSEN is the electricity distribution network operator for over 3.8 million homes and businesses across central southern England and the north of Scotland1.
The work is being carried out with independent experts through Imperial Consultants, led by Dr Leila Sheldrick of Imperial College London, alongside The Smith Institute and National Energy Action1.
"To manage the risk of the net zero future to our customers, we have to understand it. We already carefully record the numbers of those customers who self-identify as vulnerable, but we also track the 'gap' between those who have contacted us and those who have vulnerabilities that would benefit from extra support, but haven't been in touch."
Why it matters for households
The PSR is the list a network operator uses to prioritise support, for example during a power cut, for customers who need it. SSEN's figure of more than 770,000 households and businesses on its register, and its expectation that this will nearly double during the 2020s, indicates the scale of need the operator expects to plan for1. Households that are not on the register are not visible to the network in the same way, which is the gap SSEN says it tracks1.
For a home, the practical link between vulnerability forecasting and energy independence is the connection itself. A household that adds solar panels, an electric vehicle charger or a heat pump draws more power through the local network, and the operator decides where reinforcement or flexibility is needed. If vulnerability data feeds into that planning, communities less able to adopt such technologies, or less able to afford them, are intended to be accounted for in the same decisions1. National Energy Action said the project could provide data for networks to make the best decisions for their customers, and that it would work with SSEN to help drive decisions that protect households from unnecessary costs and allow fuel poor households to be early beneficiaries of decarbonisation1.
The project is a forecasting exercise, not a change to any household's supply, tariff or support entitlement. No change to PSR eligibility or to any customer's service has been reported1.
What happens next
The VFES project will produce a report on the usefulness of foresighting and machine learning in predicting network requirements based on customer, community and wider societal factors1. It will report in early 20231.