Nesta published a report on 7 July 2022 estimating that there are currently only 3,000 trained heat pump engineers in the UK, while at least 27,000 will be needed in the next six years, requiring increases of 4,000 to 6,000 per year1. The charity said this means training more new engineers every year than are currently in the whole industry1.
The report, "How to scale a highly skilled heat pump industry", examines the skills and qualifications needed to install heat pumps at the scale required to meet government installation targets1. The UK government has set out a target to increase annual installation numbers from around 30,000 before 2020 to 600,000 by 2028, and to meet its net zero target the UK needs to replace roughly 25 million oil and gas boilers with low-carbon heating systems over the next three decades1. An analysis of the Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS) database found there are around 1,300 companies certified by the MCS that install heat pumps, and that the industry will need to add roughly 5,000 to 7,000 engineers every year from 2025 until 20351.
The report states that new heat pump engineers will need to be recruited from among both qualified gas boiler engineers and people outside the industry, but that there is no financial incentive for gas boiler engineers to take on heat pump installation training, as wages for these jobs are broadly lower than for gas boiler installations and training can cost thousands of pounds1. It adds that there is also no single, clear route for someone new to the industry to train as a heat pump engineer1.
"A shortage of trained heat pump engineers could put a spanner in the works of the government's net zero target. We will need thousands more heat pump engineers trained every year to make real progress in providing low-carbon alternatives to gas boilers and meet increasing demand for qualified installers, but this won't happen while there is a risk of engineers spending more on training than they will make from it."
The report outlines that a £5,000 payment to 5,000 heating engineers per year would cost £25m per year, and that increasing the supply of installers in this way could be 6 times cheaper than the annual £150m cost of the UK Government's current Boiler Upgrade Scheme1.
A separate Nesta feature on Scotland's heat pump installation sector estimates there are 210 companies operating in Scotland's heat pump installation sector, with 200 to 400 installers delivering approximately 3,500 installations per year2. The Scottish Government has targeted 170,000 low carbon heating installations per year by 2030, which on face value would need a 48-fold increase in the number of installations and installers in just seven years2. Nesta states that although there are currently between 20 and 25 heat pumps fitted per trained installer per year, this could increase to around 35 to 40 installations with the productivity gains that come with a more established market, giving a target of around 4,000 installers in Scotland by 2033, a 15- to 20-fold increase2.
Why it matters for households
The number of trained installers sets a practical ceiling on how quickly homes can move from gas or oil boilers to a heat pump. Nesta's figures suggest the current workforce is a small fraction of what would be needed to meet the installation targets it cites, and that the routes into training and the pay on offer are part of the reason1. For a household considering a heat pump, the availability of a certified installer in their area, and the time it takes to book one, follow from that workforce position. The report also notes that MCS certification is not mandatory, so the database of certified companies it analysed is not a comprehensive list of all companies designing and installing domestic heat pumps1.
What happens next
Nesta recommends that governments in the UK look at trialling cash incentives to get more people and companies training heat pump engineers, as well as establishing direct routes to training via low carbon heating apprenticeships and college courses1. The report's proposed £5,000 payment to 5,000 heating engineers per year would cost £25m per year1. No decision by government on such a scheme has been reported.