National Energy Action, the fuel poverty charity, published figures on 22 July 2022 estimating that 8.2 million UK households could be in fuel poverty once the October price cap change takes effect1. The projection rests on forecasts from energy analysts Cornwall Insight that the average energy bill could reach £3,250 per year, an increase of over 60%1.
The charity's calculation uses the definition of fuel poverty as homes spending more than 10% of total income on energy, and takes account of the £400 energy rebate the government is giving to all households, announced in May1. On that basis it puts the October figure at one in three UK households1.
The comparison with the previous year is stark. In October 2021 the average annual energy bill was £1,271, which meant 4.5 million UK households were in fuel poverty1.
| Measure | October 2021 | Projected October 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Average annual energy bill | £1,271 | £3,250 |
| Households in fuel poverty | 4.5 million | 8.2 million |
Adam Scorer, chief executive of National Energy Action, said:
"Anticipated prices far exceed earlier projections. Current financial support will be inadequate as much of that money will be spent before winter kicks in. We are facing the bleakest of winters. Energy bills are already unaffordable for millions, and millions more are set to suffer. People will be forced into impossible situations. Choosing between heating and eating, forced into spiralling debt and putting their emotional and physical health at significant risk. The energy crisis is the urgent priority for a new prime minister. Higher prices and cold weather are inevitable. Dither and delay are not."
Why it matters for households
The figures describe a change in the scale of the problem rather than a change in how it is measured. Fuel poverty is defined as spending more than 10% of total income on energy, so a household crosses the threshold either when its bill rises or when its income falls1. A projected average bill of £3,250 against an average of £1,271 a year earlier means many homes that were managing are now spending a far larger share of income on gas and electricity1.
For a household's energy independence, the practical effect is a squeeze on the money left for everything else. The £400 rebate is counted in the charity's calculation, which means the 8.2 million figure already assumes that support is received1. The charity states that current financial support will be inadequate because much of it will be spent before winter1.
The projection is a forecast, not a measurement. It depends on Cornwall Insight's estimate of the October price cap level and on the £400 rebate being paid as announced1. The actual number of households in fuel poverty will not be known until prices and incomes for the period are recorded. The charity has not reported regional breakdowns of the 8.2 million figure, and no nation-by-nation totals have been published1.
What happens next
The October price cap change is the trigger for the projected figures1. National Energy Action has published a set of government asks at nea.org.uk/energy-crisis and states that the energy crisis is the urgent priority for a new prime minister1. No further dates are given in the announcement.