The Climate Change Committee published its seventh carbon budget, setting out the role that heat pumps will play in meeting the UK's carbon targets. Energy UK, the industry body, reported that the budget suggests around half of the homes in the UK will need a heat pump by 20401.
Energy UK's account of the budget appeared in a blog published on 5 March 2025, which also cited the committee's finding that in 2023, 15% of the UK's emissions came from domestic buildings, mostly from heating homes1. The committee's own publication is dated 2024 in Energy UK's footnote1. The full detail of the seventh carbon budget, beyond the heat pump share for 2040, has not been reported in the material available.
Energy UK's blog accompanied new research by Imperial College London and Energy UK, based on a survey of 1,027 households, on what drives households to switch heating technology1. Among boiler owners, 77% agreed their heating system met their household's needs, but only 43% thought their heating costs were acceptable. Among heat pump owners, 81% were satisfied with the heat their system provided and 68% with its running costs1.
The research also reported when households would consider switching. The majority of homeowners (53%) and landlords (54%) said they would wait until their heating breaks, while 40% of homeowners and 60% of landlords would switch when they next renovate. Some 58% of landlords and 36% of homeowners said they would invest in a heating system that would increase the house price1.
"Just last week the Climate Change Committee's seventh carbon budget outlined the vital role that heat pumps will play in meeting the UK's carbon targets"
Why it matters for households
The carbon budget is a statutory framework document, but its heat pump share for 2040 describes the scale of change expected across the housing stock, and therefore the direction of policy on carbon budgets and net zero targets and on heat pump policy and targets.
For a household, the practical questions are running costs, disruption and what happens at the point a boiler fails. Energy UK's research found satisfaction with existing boilers is high on meeting heating needs but low on cost, and that most owners would only switch at a breakdown or a renovation1. Energy UK argued that moving from boilers to heat pumps reduces dependence on imported fossil fuels as the share of home-grown electricity grows, and that heat pumps allow households to use electricity at off-peak times when it is cheaper1. It also noted that the more energy efficient a home is, the more it will save from having a heat pump1. How the budget's heat pump share is to be delivered, and at what cost to households, has not been reported.
What happens next
Energy UK welcomed the Government's #WarmAndFuzzy campaign, which it said is aimed at improving public communication on low-carbon heating, and said television advertisements were coming1. It also pointed to the Government's consultation on reforming the Energy Performance Certification system and a consultation on minimum energy efficiency standards1. No dates for those next steps are given in the material available.