In November 2024, the Prime Minister announced that the UK's second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) would require an at least 81% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, compared to 1990 levels1. The Climate Change Committee, which advises the Government on carbon budgets under the Climate Change Act 2008, records the announcement in its Seventh Carbon Budget report and states that its own pathway is in line with the UK's stated NDCs1.
The Committee's recommended level for the Seventh Carbon Budget, a limit on UK greenhouse gas emissions over the five-year period 2038 to 2042, is 535 MtCO2e, including emissions from international aviation and shipping1. It reports that UK emissions in 2023 were around half their 1990 levels, and that by the middle of the Seventh Carbon Budget period its pathway puts emissions at only a quarter of today's level, and 87% lower than 1990 (90% lower excluding international aviation and shipping)1.
"In November 2024, the Prime Minister announced that the UK's second NDC would require an at least 81% reduction in GHG emissions by 2035, compared to 1990 levels."
The Committee's Balanced Pathway sets out what delivering those targets would involve. Electrification and low-carbon electricity supply account for the largest share of emissions reductions, 60% by 2040, and require twice as much electricity as today by 20401. Offshore wind capacity grows six-fold from 15 GW in 2023 to 88 GW by 2040, onshore wind doubles to 32 GW and solar reaches 82 GW1. The Committee also notes that the UK's last coal-fired power station, Ratcliffe-on-Soar, closed in September 20241.
For homes, the pathway assumes around half of UK homes are heated using a heat pump by 2040, against around 1% in 20231. That requires annual heat pump installations in existing residential properties to rise from 60,000 in 2023 to nearly 450,000 by 2030 and around 1.5 million by 2035, with all new and replacement heating systems becoming low carbon after 20351. On transport, three-quarters of cars and vans and nearly two-thirds of heavy goods vehicles on the road are electric by 2040, up from 2.8% of cars and 1.4% of vans in 20231.
| Measure | 2023 | 2040 (Balanced Pathway) |
|---|---|---|
| Homes heated by heat pump | around 1% | around half |
| Offshore wind capacity | 15 GW | 88 GW |
| Onshore wind capacity | not stated | 32 GW |
| Solar capacity | not stated | 82 GW |
| Cars and vans that are electric | 2.8% of cars, 1.4% of vans | three-quarters |
Why it matters for households
The NDC is a national target, but the pathway behind it reaches into individual homes. The Committee states that heat pumps are around three-to-four times more efficient than gas boilers, which should lead to lower household energy bills, provided policy costs are removed from electricity bills1. It also states that ending the combustion of fossil fuels in boilers and cars leads to cleaner air in homes and neighbourhoods, and that Net Zero will increase economic security against fossil fuel price shocks, which it says have caused around half of the UK's recessions since 19701. The Committee estimates the net costs of Net Zero at around 0.2% of UK GDP per year on average in its pathway, with investment upfront leading to net savings during the Seventh Carbon Budget period1. How the 81% target is translated into obligations on individual homes has not been reported.
What happens next
The Committee states that it is now for the Government to propose a level for the Seventh Carbon Budget to Parliament, and for Parliament to approve or reject that level, and that this must take place by 30 June 20261. The Committee's report was presented to the Secretary of State pursuant to Section 34 of the Climate Change Act 20081.
Sources1 cited
- The Seventh Carbon Budget - Climate Change Committee, theccc.org.uk