The Climate Change Committee published its assessment on 18 July 2024 that the UK is off track for its 2030 emissions target, with only a third of the required reductions covered by credible plans1. The Committee, which advises the UK Government on carbon budgets and Net Zero targets, set out ten priority recommendations for the new Government1.
The Committee reported that UK emissions are now less than half their 1990 levels, which it attributed largely to the phase out of coal and the growth of renewables1. It said the plans in place from the previous Government will not deliver enough action, and that policy rollbacks have widened the gap between the UK's plans and its targets1.
"The country's 2030 emissions reduction target is at risk. The new Government has an opportunity to course-correct, but it will need to be done as a matter of urgency to make up for lost time."
The Committee said almost all its indicators for rolling out low carbon technology are off track. By 2030, it said annual offshore wind installations must increase by at least three times, onshore wind installations will need to double and solar installations must increase by five times1. On homes, it said approximately 10% of existing UK homes will need to be heated by a heat pump, compared with only approximately 1% today1. The market share of new electric cars needs to rise from 16.5% in 2023 to nearly 100%1.
| Indicator | Today | Needed by 2030 |
|---|---|---|
| Homes heated by a heat pump | approximately 1% | approximately 10% |
| Market share of new electric cars | 16.5% in 2023 | nearly 100% |
| Annual offshore wind installations | current rate | at least three times current rate |
| Onshore wind installations | current rate | double |
| Solar installations | current rate | five times |
Among the ten recommendations, the Committee called for removing policy costs from electricity prices, removing the exemption of 20% of households from the 2035 fossil-fuel boiler installation phase-out, and reinstating the 2030 phase-out of new fossil-fuel car and van sales1. It also called for planning barriers to be removed for heat pumps, electric vehicle charge points and onshore wind, and for the Sixth and Seventh Allocation Rounds to be designed to deliver at least 50 GW of offshore wind by 20301. The Committee said it has written a priority list of ten recommendations1.
Why it matters for households
The Committee's figures describe how far household energy use sits from the trajectory its advice assumes. Heating is the clearest case: the Committee says around 1% of existing UK homes currently use a heat pump, against approximately 10% needed by 2030 on its assessment1. That gap implies a large increase in installations across the existing housing stock, most of which is not covered by the current rate.
The recommendation to remove policy costs from electricity prices is framed by the Committee as a way to ensure the lower running costs of heat pumps compared with fossil-fuel boilers are reflected in household bills, and to support industrial electrification1. For a household weighing a heat pump against a gas boiler, that running-cost comparison is the part of the assessment that bears most directly on energy independence, because it concerns the price of the energy a home uses rather than the equipment alone.
The Committee also flagged the removal of obligations on landlords to improve the energy efficiency of rented homes as a rollback it wants addressed1. Energy efficiency affects how much energy a home needs in the first place, and so how much a household depends on external supply. The Committee's assessment does not quantify the effect of these rollbacks on individual bills.
What happens next
The Committee said it will publish its advice on the Seventh Carbon Budget and an updated path to Net Zero early in 20251. It also said it hopes the new Government will use COP29 in November to re-establish UK leadership on the global climate stage1. No dates have been reported for government decisions on the ten recommendations.