Ember, an independent energy think tank, published analysis on 18 October 2023 finding that UK households could save £300 every year on their electricity bills in 2030 if the government completes its switch to a mostly clean power system by then1. The same analysis puts the total annual saving for the UK economy at £8.7 billion if the 2030 clean power targets are met1.
The report says the UK can reach a 98% clean power system in 2030 by delivering on existing targets for offshore wind, solar power and other system elements, but adds that the government is currently falling behind on delivering these commitments1. The "Delivering commitments" scenario assumes targets including 50 GW of offshore wind by 2030, 70 GW of solar by 2035 and 10 GW of low carbon hydrogen production capacity by 2030, alongside falling gas power plant capacity, increased interconnection and onshore wind doubling from 2022 levels1.
"The longer the UK relies on fossil fuels, the longer households will feel the pinch. A clean power system will save households hundreds of pounds a year off bills, but lagging government action risks blocking those benefits."
The analysis also sets out what the extra clean output could be used for. It finds the UK could export 49 TWh of electricity in 2030 to neighbouring countries, which it says is enough to power Ireland for a year, and could produce 34 TWh of green hydrogen in 2030, more than 30 times the current level1.
On method, Ember says the scenarios are largely based on capacity and demand values in National Grid's Future Energy Scenarios 2023 report1. Bill savings are calculated against OFGEM's Q3 2023 default price cap, using Ember's power sector model for wholesale power price changes, including contract for difference costs, with network charges scaled using National Grid's planned investment in the UK's power network; other components such as policy charges, operating costs and margins are assumed to stay at similar levels1.
| Commitment in the "Delivering commitments" scenario | Level | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Offshore wind | 50 GW | 2030 |
| Solar | 70 GW | 2035 |
| Low carbon hydrogen production capacity | 10 GW | 2030 |
Why it matters for households
The £300 figure is a saving on electricity bills, not a change to how a home is supplied, and it is modelled against the Q3 2023 default price cap rather than any particular tariff1. It rests on the government delivering its existing clean power commitments on time; Ember states the government is currently falling behind on those commitments, so the saving is presented as a consequence of delivery rather than a forecast of current policy1. For a household, the analysis links the cost of reliance on fossil fuels to the size of the bill, and links a mostly clean system to lower wholesale power costs, which Ember identifies as the main component of a household bill1. The wider effects described, electricity exports and green hydrogen production, concern the power system and industry rather than the home, though they indicate a system with more capacity than domestic demand requires1. The analysis does not report effects on gas bills, on heating, or on household self-generation, and no such figures have been reported1. The regulation and policy framework that governs these targets is where the commitments and their delivery sit.
What happens next
The analysis is dated 18 October 2023 and compares savings in 2030 against OFGEM's Q3 2023 default price cap1. No further dates for government decisions or reviews are given in the analysis1.
Sources1 cited
- A clean power system saves UK households £300 per year | Ember, ember-energy.org