Citizens Advice published research on 6 October 2023 examining the network costs of low carbon heating, based on work commissioned from LCP Delta1. The study models four low carbon heating scenarios across 12 archetypes in Great Britain, looking at the cost of upgrading electricity cables and gas pipes depending on which heating technology is used and where1.
The report states that 28 million homes will need to be using low carbon heating systems by 2050 to meet net zero targets1. On costs, it finds that in 10 of the 12 archetypes electrification has the lowest network costs, with hydrogen lowest in the remaining two1. Where electrification is cheapest, it is on average 44 per cent below the next lowest cost scenario; where hydrogen is cheapest, it is on average 5 per cent lower when hydrogen storage costs are not included1.
The research also models a scenario in which no technology is specified, finding this more than doubles network costs on average because it requires large scale upgrades of both electricity and gas networks1. Electrification is the lowest cost option in all rural archetypes, by between 53 per cent and 84 per cent, and in all industrial archetypes, by between 27 per cent and 57 per cent1. Upgrades at the distribution network level are described as the key influence on overall costs in all archetypes and scenarios1.
"In 10 out of the 12 archetypes, electrification has the lowest network costs, with hydrogen having the lowest costs for the remaining 2 archetypes."
The report notes that the Climate Change Committee has challenged the UK Government on the need to set a clear direction on the future technology mix for low carbon heat, with heat pumps and heat networks described as no-regrets options in many cases, and to identify regions with high, low or no potential to use hydrogen for home heating1.
| Finding | Figure |
|---|---|
| Archetypes where electrification has lowest network costs | 10 of 12 |
| Archetypes where hydrogen has lowest network costs | 2 of 12 |
| Electrification advantage where it is cheapest | 44% below next lowest scenario, on average |
| Hydrogen advantage where it is cheapest | 5% lower, on average, excluding hydrogen storage costs |
| No technology specified | More than doubles network costs on average |
| Electrification advantage, rural archetypes | 53% to 84% |
| Electrification advantage, industrial archetypes | 27% to 57% |
Why it matters for households
The costs in this research are network costs: the expense of upgrading the cables and pipes that carry energy to homes, not the price a household pays for a heating system or for the energy it uses1. Those network costs are recovered through bills, so the technology mix chosen for a region shapes what households there ultimately pay towards the grid and the gas network.
The finding that distribution level upgrades drive overall costs in every archetype and scenario1 points to local networks, rather than national transmission, as the main cost pressure. For a household, the practical question of energy independence turns on what can be installed where: the research indicates the cheapest network outcome differs by area, with rural and industrial archetypes both favouring electrification on cost1.
The report does not set out bill impacts for individual households, and no per-home cost figures are given in the published summary1. The Climate Change Committee position cited in the report is that heat pumps and heat networks are no-regrets options in many cases, while the potential for hydrogen home heating varies by region1. Households seeking advice on heating options or on complaints and redress can approach the bodies covered in the site's guide to energy consumer bodies, which includes Citizens Advice.
What happens next
The report is framed as a contribution to the evidence base for government decisions on the future technology mix for low carbon heat1. No further dated steps are set out in the published material, and no government response to this research has been reported1.
Sources2 cited
- Heat GB: Calculating the network costs for low carbon heating - Citizens Advice, citizensadvice.org.uk
- Heat GB: Calculating the network costs for low carbon heating - Citizens Advice, citizensadvice.org.uk