CCC says confidence in UK meeting goals from 2030 onwards markedly less than a year ago

The Climate Change Committee published its 2023 Progress Report to Parliament on 28 June 2023, assessing the Government's Carbon Budget Delivery Plan (CBDP)¹. The plan was published following last year's High Court ruling and gives much greater transparency on net zero plans, but the Committee said a key opportunity to raise the pace of delivery has been missed¹.

"However, despite over 3,000 pages of new detail, the Climate Change Committee's confidence in the UK meeting its goals from 2030 onwards is now markedly less than it was in our previous assessment a year ago."

UK greenhouse gas emissions have fallen 46% from 1990 levels, against a COP26 commitment to cut them by 68% by 2030¹. The Committee said the recent rate of annual emissions reduction outside the electricity supply sector must quadruple in only seven years to meet that¹. It reported that progress has not been made on seven of the priority recommendations it made to BEIS last year, and that Defra and DLUHC failed to achieve any of its 2022 priority recommendations¹.

On homes, the Committee said the Government proposes to scale up the heat pump market to 600,000 installations by 2028, but current rates are around one-ninth of that, and that installation rates of energy efficiency measures fell further in 2022¹. It said no progress was made on introducing a clear policy to ensure owner-occupied homes reach a minimum energy performance of EPC C by 2035¹. The National Insulation Association reported that emissions from homes fell 16% since 2022, but that adjusting for temperature reduces the decrease to 6%³. It also reported that 77% of building-related emissions in the sixth carbon budget are judged to be at significant risk or with insufficient plans, and that the greatest policy gap is energy efficiency in non-fuel-poor homes³.

The Building Engineering Services Association, responding to the report, said the built environment accounts for 17% of total UK emissions and needs to cut them by 43% (33 MtCO2e) by 2030⁴. It reported just 72,000 new heat pumps installed last year against a target of 130,000, which the Committee said should rise to 145,000 this year⁴. It also reported that the Committee said credible plans exist for only 25% of the future reductions needed⁴.

The Treasury has removed policy costs from electricity bills as part of a package of consumer energy support, moving electricity prices closer to gas prices; the Committee said this should be made permanent¹. The Government does not expect to make a strategic decision on the role of hydrogen in heating until 2026¹.

Why it matters for households

The report sets out how far the national framework that shapes home energy decisions is from its targets. For a household, the practical signals are mixed. Electricity prices have moved closer to gas prices after policy costs were removed from bills, which changes the running-cost comparison between electric heating and gas¹. But the pace of heat pump installation and energy efficiency work is far below what the Committee says is needed, and no policy has been set for owner-occupied homes to reach EPC C by 2035¹. The Committee also said the lack of a decision on hydrogen in heating until 2026 leaves uncertainty¹. Emissions from homes fell last year, but the Committee attributed much of that to mild weather and high energy costs rather than to lasting improvements⁴.

What happens next

The Committee has called on the Government to respond to the 2020 consultation on requiring private rented sector homes in England and Wales to meet EPC C by 2028, and to publish plans to enhance compliance with Building Regulations and minimum EPC requirements². It also recommended reforms to domestic EPC metrics and updates to the Standard Assessment Procedure². A strategic decision on hydrogen's role in heating is not expected until 2026¹.

Sources4 cited

1. Better transparency is no substitute for real delivery - Climate Change Committee, theccc.org.uk
2. 2023 Progress Report to Parliament - Climate Change Committee, theccc.org.uk
3. Climate Change Committee – 2023 Progress Report to Parliament - National Insulation Association, nia-uk.org
4. Focus on retrofit to get net zero back on track, says BESA, thebesa.com