The European Heat Pump Association (EHPA) has calculated that the European heat pump sector needs a minimum of 500,000 skilled full time equivalent employees by 2030 to fulfil the ambitions of the REPowerEU plan, according to a press release issued at the end of January 20231. The figure was reported alongside the association's confirmation that around 3 million heating heat pumps were sold across 16 European markets in 2022, based on early data1.
EHPA said the sector has a lot of jobs to offer but not enough trained workers to fill them1. The association's calculation covers the workforce needed to deliver the REPowerEU plan's heating ambitions, and it sits alongside other constraints it identified: stakeholders throughout the value chain working at capacity, and supply chains for heat exchangers, fans, compressors and semi-conductors stretched to the limit1. On the end-user side, EHPA pointed to information gaps and to upfront and operating cost issues that it said need to be addressed to ensure continuous future demand1.
"The European heat pump sector has a lot of jobs to offer, but there are not enough trained workers to fill them."
The 2022 sales figure of around 3 million units represents an increase of 38% on 2021, which in turn rose by 34% on 20201. EHPA puts the total number of heat pumps installed in Europe at around 20 million, providing heating to about 16% of Europe's residential and commercial buildings and avoiding 54 Mt of CO21. Growth in sales against 2021 varied widely by market:
| Market | Increase in heat pump sales, 2022 vs 2021 |
|---|---|
| Poland | slightly above +100% |
| Czechia | 99% |
| Netherlands | 80% |
Measured as heat pumps sold per household, Finland recorded the highest number in 2022, followed by Norway and Sweden1.
Why it matters for households
The installer shortfall is the practical constraint that sits between a household deciding on a heat pump and having one fitted and maintained. EHPA's calculation is a sector-wide workforce number, not a statement about any single country's training pipeline, and the report does not break the 500,000 figure down by nation or by trade. For a household, the relevant consequence is that the availability of qualified installers shapes how quickly a system can be specified, commissioned and serviced, and that a stretched supply chain for components can affect lead times. The association frames the market growth itself as contributing to reduced emissions, improved energy security and affordability for end consumers1, which is the link between the installer base and a home's energy independence: a heat pump only displaces delivered fossil fuel once it is installed and running correctly.
What happens next
EHPA states that a sufficient number of skilled installers and other workers needs to be ensured through training and retraining of the workforce, and that the existing challenges need to be addressed at EU level as well as at local level1. No timetable, funding mechanism or national allocation for the 500,000 figure has been reported.
Sources1 cited
- Growth record for European Heat Pump Market - 2022 Best Year so Far - HPT - Heat Pumping Technologies, heatpumpingtechnologies.org