E3G, an independent climate change think tank, published a set of ten facts on home energy security on 22 March 2022, ahead of an energy security strategy expected from the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, following the energy supply crisis caused by the invasion of Ukraine1.
The publication states that nearly 90% of the increase in bills over the last year is due to the rising price of gas, which has more than tripled over the same period, with most of the remaining increase attributed to the cost of suppliers going bust1. It says the UK has the oldest and most poorly insulated housing stock in western Europe and that over 85% of homes are connected to the gas grid, leaving households exposed to the volatility of international gas markets1. UK homes "leak" heat up to three times more quickly than more energy-efficient homes on the continent, it adds1.
On insulation, E3G states that after cuts to energy efficiency programmes in 2013, the number of homes getting their lofts or cavity walls insulated each year fell by 92% and 74% respectively, and has not recovered1. By the end of 2021, it says, a running total of 9 million homes had missed out on 18 million installations, leaving UK energy bills £2.5bn higher than they would have been and costing the average household at least £60 a year1.
The figures on savings and potential are set out as follows1:
| Measure | Figure given |
|---|---|
| Savings from efficiency measures installed since 2004, by 2017 | £500 a year for the average household |
| Fall in household gas consumption by 2020 against 2004 | 25% |
| Fall in household electricity consumption by 2020 against 2004 | 13% |
| Further saving from improving inefficient homes to EPC C, based on the April 2022 price cap | At least £500 for the average household |
| Typical energy bill from April 2022 | £2,000 |
E3G states that energy efficiency is responsible for 25% of pre-pandemic UK economic growth since 1971, and that a national retrofit programme would sustain a GDP increase of 0.75% to 2040, support 190,000 jobs in energy efficiency and clean heat, and result in over 100,000 net additional jobs when the programme is complete1. On gas supply, it says 4% of UK gas comes from Russia, and that energy efficiency, clean heat and renewables investment could eliminate all Russian gas within a year and replace four times the gas currently imported from Russia by 20251. It also states that even if UK oil and gas production is ramped up, it will do almost nothing to reduce prices for UK households because the price is set in global markets1.
Why it matters for households
The figures place household exposure to gas prices at the centre of the energy security debate. With over 85% of homes on the gas grid and gas prices having more than tripled, the cost of heating is tied to international markets rather than to UK production, according to E3G1. Its estimate that improving inefficient homes to EPC C would save the average household at least a further £500, based on the April 2022 price cap, sets a figure on what the physical condition of a home contributes to a bill1. The stated potential to cut household energy demand by at least a quarter cost-effectively, and by half technically, frames efficiency as a matter of how much energy a home needs rather than only what it pays for it1. The regulation and policy framework that governs standards, grants and programme funding is where these figures would be turned into measures on homes.
What happens next
E3G states that Boris Johnson is expected to soon set out a new energy security strategy1. No date for that strategy is given in the publication, and no further timetable for a retrofit programme is reported1.