Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Immediately afterwards, oil prices went above $100 per barrel1, and gas prices in Europe increased by 50% on the day of the invasion2. The Commons Library describes the invasion as a driver of the energy price spike, noting that gas prices rose to record levels after it began and continued rising through much of 2022 because of cuts in Russian supply1.
The effect on UK household bills was already in motion before the invasion. Rapid increases in wholesale energy prices from mid-2021 onwards led to a 54% increase in the energy price cap in April 20222, and up to 22 million households faced a rise from £1,277 to £1,971 on 1 April under that cap3. At the end of August 2022, Ofgem announced the cap would increase by a further 80% to £3,549 from 1 October 20221. The government then intervened: on 8 September 2022 the then Prime Minister announced a new Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) would be introduced on 1 October, to cap typical consumption at £2,500 a year1. The EPG limited the increase in typical bills to 27% in October 20221.
The guarantee was then cut back. The then Chancellor announced on 17 October 2022 that the EPG would only last six months1, before announcing in the Autumn Statement that it would increase in April 2023 to £3,000 for typical annual consumption and last to the end of March 20241. A fall in the price cap in July 2023 meant the EPG no longer set maximum prices and consumer bills fell1. The EPG ended on 31 March 20242.
| Date | Typical annual bill under the cap or EPG |
|---|---|
| April 2022 price cap | £1,9713 |
| October 2022 price cap (not implemented) | £3,5491 |
| October 2022 to June 2023, EPG | £2,5001 |
| July 2023 price cap | £2,0741 |
| October to December 2023 price cap | £1,9231 |
The wider cost reached beyond bills. The UK spent an estimated £60bn to £70bn buying gas on wholesale markets in the 12 months from 24 February 2022, around £50bn to £60bn more than in a typical pre-pandemic year4. The annual rate of inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022, a 41-year high1. Over the three years between May 2021 and May 2024, UK consumer prices increased by 20.8% in total1.
The invasion also prompted a European policy response. The International Energy Agency released a 10-point plan on 3 March 2022 to reduce the EU's reliance on Russian natural gas, having found the EU imported 155 billion cubic metres from Russia in 2021, over 45% of its gas imports and nearly 40% of total gas consumption5. Among the measures was speeding up the replacement of gas boilers with heat pumps, which the IEA said would reduce gas use by an additional 2 billion cubic metres within a year5.
"Gas prices in Europe increased by 50% on 24 February 2022, the day Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine"
Why it matters for households
The invasion did not change UK household energy prices directly. It changed the wholesale market that sets them, and the effect arrived through the price cap and the guarantee that replaced it for a period. The UK sources less than 5% of its gas from Russian imports, relying largely on North Sea reserves and supply from Norway3, so the exposure was to international prices rather than to Russian supply itself. That distinction matters for how global events move UK energy prices: a household's bill can rise sharply even when the gas in its pipes comes from elsewhere.
The period also showed how far government support, rather than market prices, determined what households actually paid. Without intervention, record 2022 prices would have led to an 80% increase in the cap; the EPG limited it to 27%2. When the cap later fell below the EPG level, the guarantee stopped setting maximum prices and bills fell1. For a home's energy independence, the episode points to two separate levers: the price of imported fuel, which a household cannot control, and the amount of energy a home needs, which it can. The Commons Library notes that with little immediate prospect of savings from fixed tariffs or substantial further cuts in the price cap, the only way to substantially reduce energy bills while still adequately heating and powering homes is to improve the energy efficiency of properties2. The national supply hub covers the wider picture on where UK energy comes from.
What happens next
The EPG ended on 31 March 20242. The price cap has continued to be set quarterly since, with the cap falling in October 2023, April 2024 and July 20241. The July to September 2024 price cap was still almost 30% higher than the winter 2021/22 cap1.
Sources5 cited
- [](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9428/CBP-9428.pdf), researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk
- Author: BOLTON, Paul, researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk
- Q&A: What does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine mean for energy and climate change? - Carbon Brief, carbonbrief.org
- Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit | The Cost of Gas since the…, eciu.net
- IEA has launched 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union’s Reliance on Russian Natural Gas – heat pumps are part of the solution - HPT - Heat Pumping Technologies, heatpumpingtechnologies.org