Nesta, a research and innovation foundation, started a project in March 2024 to map heat pump suitability across Great Britain. The project ran until October 20251.
The work set out to create what Nesta describes as a reliable, impartial dataset on the suitability of different heat pump types, including air source and networked ground source, at neighbourhood level1. Nesta states that it is unclear how many homes in Great Britain are suitable for different types of heat pump, and that assumptions about suitability are often made without robust evidence1.
"This project started in March 2024 and ended in October 2025"
Nesta says it used data science methods to modify and enrich the openly available energy performance certificate (EPC) dataset of properties, and held stakeholder workshops to map assumptions about suitability at small-area levels1. Because EPC data covers only around two thirds of residential properties in England and Wales, Nesta applied statistical techniques, including iterative proportional fitting, to weight the EPC data against the 2021 UK census1. Suitability scores were calculated per property and then averaged per neighbourhood1.
Nesta published a dataset of heat pump suitability per lower layer super output area and a map to explore suitability across the UK, and states that neither will be updated in future as work moves towards a tool for local clean heat planning1. In the final phase, Nesta conducted user research and worked alongside Plymouth City Council1. Planned changes include identifying the most suitable technology for each area rather than independent scores per technology, grouping homes into bespoke small areas rather than fixed LSOAs or data zones, using Ordnance Survey open unique property reference number data instead of weighted EPC data, adding satellite imagery and street view for visual verification, and prototyping in one area before scaling up1.
Why it matters for households
The suitability of a home for a heat pump is usually assessed property by property, often at the point of a survey or quote. This project worked at the scale of neighbourhoods, producing average suitability scores for areas rather than judgements about individual homes1. Nesta states that its aim was not to replace local planning for heat, but to simplify how strategic choices are made about which low-carbon heating technologies suit different neighbourhoods1.
For a household, area-level data of this kind sits behind decisions made by others: local authorities, network operators and suppliers. Nesta notes that consumer choice, market offerings and infrastructure development are guided to some extent by data and models that present assumptions about what works where, and that these assumptions are rarely impartial1. The project's stated purpose was to provide evidence that can challenge or verify those assumptions, for example where air source heat pumps are ruled out in homes where they could be installed1.
What happens next
Nesta states that the existing heat pump suitability map will be retired once work to identify the most suitable technology for each area is complete1. In the following months it planned to focus on building a tool to support local clean heat planning in Plymouth, using learnings from work with Plymouth City Council, and to engage with other local authorities1. No dates for the completion of that tool have been reported1.