The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) published a report, "Getting off Gas", on 24 April 2023, arguing that the Government's energy security objective is incompatible with continued high gas demand as UK production falls1.
The report projects that North Sea production will decline by 55% by 2030 and 75% by 2035, even with plans to expand drilling1. On that basis, and without faster cuts to demand, net imports would rise to almost 60% above current levels by 2035, with almost 85% of UK gas demand met by net imports, over five times the level met by UK production, compared with an even split today1. The ECIU states:
"The Government's aim of greater UK energy security is incompatible with ongoing high gas demand, more so as North Sea gas production continues to decline."
The report sets out three demand trajectories. If deployment of renewables, heat pumps and insulation is not accelerated, gas demand would be perhaps just 10% below current levels by 20351. Meeting existing targets for net zero technologies would cut demand by 40% by 2035, limiting the rise in net imports during the 2020s before they fell back to 5% below current levels by 2035; net imports would still equate to almost 80% of UK demand, four times the level met by UK production1. Accelerating deployment would see demand fall by almost 65% by 2035, cutting net imports by as much as 230TWh a year, 55% below current levels1.
| Scenario | Gas demand by 2035 | Net imports by 2035 |
|---|---|---|
| No acceleration | About 10% below current levels | Almost 60% above current levels |
| Existing net zero targets met | 40% below current levels | 5% below current levels, but almost 80% of demand |
| Accelerated deployment | Almost 65% below current levels | 230TWh/yr lower, 55% below current levels |
The ECIU names policies it says would reduce net gas imports: ramping up insulation rates, which it says have fallen during the energy crisis; boosting the heat pump rollout; providing a stable regime for renewables, including lifting the ban on onshore wind in England; and delivering the Government's target of an overall 15% cut in energy demand by 20301. It also warns that pursuing hydrogen boilers for home heating at scale could raise gas import dependency significantly, because green hydrogen production is unlikely to have sufficient spare renewable electricity in the medium term and gas-based methods carry inefficiency penalties1. The report adds that the industry has warned output could fall even faster, by 80% by 20301.
Why it matters for households
The report links the level of gas demand in the UK to how much of it is met from abroad. Where gas is burned in homes for heating and hot water, that demand feeds directly into the import figures the ECIU sets out. Its projections suggest that the share of UK gas coming from overseas rises as North Sea output falls, whether or not homes change how they heat. For a household, the practical link is between the fabric and heating system of the home and the country's exposure to imported gas. The ECIU's scenarios turn on insulation rates, heat pump rollout and renewable deployment, all of which affect how much gas the UK needs to bring in. The report does not give household-level cost figures, and no estimate of the effect on individual bills has been reported.
What happens next
The report sets out no dated milestones beyond the 2030 and 2035 projection points and the Government's existing target of a 15% cut in overall energy demand by 20301. It does not state when the policies it names might be introduced, and no response from the Government to the report has been reported.