Russia has threatened to close a major gas pipeline to Europe in retaliation for countries considering bans on Russian oil imports, according to the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC)1. The threat was reported on 17 March 2022, in an article by Aurore Julien, a senior lecturer at the University of East London, which was first published by The Conversation1.
The article states that the threat could drive up prices through a lack of supply internationally, affecting even countries such as the UK which do not use much Russian gas1. It notes that prices were already high and affecting bills: Ofgem, the UK energy regulator, will increase the price cap by £693 from April 2022, meaning gas bills will increase for 22 million customers1.
UKERC sets out what it says households have achieved in past supply crises. In Juneau, Alaska, after an avalanche damaged a major power line in 2008, a campaign called "Juneau Unplugged" saw demand drop by 40% in a few weeks, largely within the first week1. In the summer of 2011, Japanese consumers reduced power demand by 12% after the Fukushima disaster1. In Colombia in March 2016, a drought threatened the 70% of the country's power capacity which comes from hydroelectricity; a six-week media campaign combined with high charges on heavier consumers produced a 4.5% fall in energy consumption1.
The article also cites International Energy Agency figures suggesting that lowering heating by just 1°C would reduce gas demand by some 10 billion cubic metres a year, about 7% of Europe's annual imports from Russia1. It reports that a survey of London households calculated household energy use would fall by 23% in a severe gas shortage, based on gas used for heating and cooking and gas used in power stations to generate electricity1. It adds that indoor temperatures below 12°C are risky for vulnerable people1.
"Russia has threatened to close a major gas pipeline to Europe in retaliation for countries considering bans on Russian oil imports."
Why it matters for households
The UK does not use much Russian gas directly, but the article states that a disruption in gas from Russia would reduce the pool of gas available on the market, which could drive up gas prices1. That links a supply threat abroad to the price cap rise of £693 from April 2022 affecting 22 million customers1. For a home's energy independence, the article points to two routes: short-term reductions in use, and longer-term measures. It says a more dependable solution would be heat pumps alongside greater energy efficiency measures such as insulation and double glazing, which could halve energy demand in UK homes over 20 years1. It adds that heat pumps powered by a growing proportion of renewable energy in the grid ultimately reduce dependence on gas as well as carbon emissions1. The national supply picture described here is one of market-wide exposure rather than direct pipeline dependence.
What happens next
The article states that 10% of the contracts Gazprom, a Russian majority state-owned energy company, uses to supply Europe with gas expire at the end of 20221. It says this creates an overwhelming incentive to eliminate dependence on Russian fuel1. No further dated steps are reported in the source.